With many economists now cautiously predicting an economic recovery of sorts on the near horizon, it would be tempting to assume that, from now on, the only way is up.
The inconvenient truth, however, is that UK unemployment — particularly for men — will continue to rise into the new year. Among men, the employment rate fell to 75.8 per cent this year (one of the lowest figures of the post-war era).
Unemployment for men now stands at 9 per cent, compared to 6.9 per cent for women.
Predictions for 2010 indicate that one in 10 British men will be without work by the start of the year, according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD). In comparison,
It predicts UK unemployment rates for men and women are likely to continue to rise well into next year, but that male unemployment will be higher and will probably peak at around 11 per cent. Worst off are young men aged 18 to 24 and Afro-Caribbean men of all ages.
Dr John Philpott, the CIPD’s chief economist, predicts a “jobs-light recovery”, during which the economy will revive slowly and recruitment will only just exceed redundancies: “Demand for labour during the recovery is going to be limited. Growth will be slow, consumer and investor spending will be weak for some time,” says Philpott.
“The main problem, as far as young men are concerned, is that there’s not a great deal of recruitment going on at the moment. Because they [younger men] have less experience, they find it harder to land jobs. The same broad principles also apply to black men.”
When pressed, the CIPD were unable to offer a more specific explanation for the level of out-of-work Afro-Caribbean men, unemployment figures for whom are currently double that of their white counterparts. The short-term picture for out-of-work British men remains therefore decidedly bleak, with unemployed people more or less powerless to improve thier situation.
Philpott said: “There isn’t much they can do for themselves; it’s really up to the government and policy-makers to improve things. The government must make sure that there is increased demand for labour within the economy.”
(Photo Le Haricot, CC2.0)
