Green and pleasant: hard hit industries are beginning to see signs of an upturn.
It’s been a bad year for many sectors.Financial services, motor manufacturing and property-related businesses have all been badly hit.
Elsewhere, traditional media are heading into meltdown (although the recession is simply an accelerant — technology is the main culprit).
But this recession has been spotty.Retail hasn’t suffered nearly as badly as some predicted (notwithstanding today’s mixed figures for May).
Jobless totals have risen — but, again, not as much as was feared nine months ago. And forecasts that this would be a long and deep downturn are starting to look a bit on the pessimistic side.
First, the macroeconomic case. GDP contraction is slowing. Even Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, who’d been among the more doomish seers, has said things are looking up in the US.
Here in the UK, an FT poll of 20 economists showed a majority seeing a gradual upturn after the summer. Even Europe is seeing signs of turning the corner.
Then the more anecdotal side. I follow a number of journalism blogs, and one in particular has caught my eye recently: Tales From A Redundant Journo. After a fortnight of depressing tales taking in recruitment agency frustrations, collapsing confidence and seeking work outside the industry, today sees her announce news that a job is imminent. Gosh — a whole two weeks of worklessness.
That’s not to underplay the severity of the recession for many newly-redundant workers, nor for many businesses still struggling for survival.
But with a positive attitude, some guts and imagination — and the prospect of more positive economic news to come — it really does feel like there are some valid “green shoots” around.
